How can we expect to move on to the next day of tourism? What’s the profile of the traveller of tomorrow? Where do hoteliers stand in all this?

It’s going to be a very difficult year for those in the hospitality industry, and tourism as a whole. It is absolutely clear that a complete strategic plan for future action with a beginning, middle and end is needed; this will paint a clear route to tomorrow, a common course for the new normal, since nothing will be the same.

What we knew until two months ago no longer exists. Everything is changing, with guests themselves first and foremost. If they had 40 or more touch points affecting their decisions so far, a few more, crucial ones are being added. Whether a company is focused on preserving the health and safety of guests will now be their main concern, as will be whether the destination, company and brand care about sustainability on a communal, personal and environmental level. If the hoteliers themselves have yet to take strides in this direction, it is certain that the traveller of the future will call for such affirmative action, so complete readiness is required. Marketing will be tremendously important in the next day of tourism and have a decisive hand in growth, because of its role in reading the market and fulfilling its needs in the best possible way.

The changes that will be made in hotel booking processes are particularly interesting. The booking window may change from up to a year and a half to a mere month or a week prior, especially for the 2020-2021 seasons (with an emphasis on summer 2020) when last-minute reservations are expected to skyrocket. “Last minute” packages are also going to be key for tour operators and online wholesalers.

If we consider, from the side of the companies which deal in large numbers of tourists, options for this year are truly low, inadequate for curbing massive losses. Greece falls under this umbrella, and we must find a way to make it through this situation without damaging what we have made for ourselves from its appropriate management. The economy needs to reinforce and cases must remain minimal so as to allow companies to survive until we navigate into calmer waters. In my opinion, there is a sweet spot, where (with a manageable amount of difficulty) all these different parameters can find balance and maximise output, whilst keeping the rest of the indicators at a low level.

As I mentioned earlier, the average ADR will need at least two years to return to its 2019 levels. Strong Revenue management will be very important in trade policy, across the spectrum of tourism. More than ever, it is crucial that the right product is sold at the right time, to the right consumer, in the right package. We should not follow the logic of “I used to sell 300 so I will continue to sell 300”, nor should we switch to “Last year I sold 300 and this year I will sell 50”. It’s crucial to remain flexible and adapt to the new realities that will present themselves every day, if not every hour. The usual key players of the market (Booking, Expedia, Hotels.com, Ctrip etc), despite the difficulties that they are now faced with, will be here tomorrow, altering their products to fit the “new normal”. We may even welcome new players to the online market, super-platforms which we cannot yet imagine, as we bear witness to bankruptcies, buy-outs and mergers. Google’s role will become even more important, since it works as a mediator for all the aforementioned parties and certainly controls the game – on the one hand, they are the advertisers, but on the flip side, they also want a piece of the pie (frenemies). Lastly, Airbnb is the big unanswered question; will it last as a business model, and, if so, for how long? My prediction is that it will, in fact, adapt to the “new normal”, though ending up with a lower portion of the market share than before the COVID-19 era, despite establishing a highly developed product. 

I don’t think that the tour operating model will become completely outdated, but its market shares will shrink and continue to do so over time. They, too, will be modernised, going “full digital” and adopting larger amounts of flexibility. Travel agents will also need to show resilience and enrich their services or else they will find themselves losing more and more of their market share. It’s a one-way street, necessary to their survival. We all experienced the collapse of Thomas Cook, due to inability to embrace the new reality. Digital development, the ability to acclimate and show flexibility are key so that everyone can hold onto their piece of the pie.

Leisure travel is expected to rebound first; the initial steps will be made with domestic car travel, giving way to aeroplanes, ships and international journeys over time. I predict that this will be the “year of the car” and that many Europeans will choose to visit even our country, either in their cars or their motorhomes and trailers and without limiting their exploration to Northern Greece. Business trips will gradually rebound right after, though there will be fewer than there were in the past, at least in the beginning. The MICE sector will re-emerge later, however not in full force; but, in the meantime, events with up to 50 participants will resurface relatively soon. Large exhibitions (WTM, ITB and more) may gradually reappear starting from next year (and on the condition that the pandemic has been conquered) but not with the same amount of visitors as was seen in previous years. Networking and human contact are important and cannot be fully replaced by video conferences. Domestic tourism will increase, but I don’t think we can expect it to make up for the absence of international visitors. In Greece’s non-touristy destinations, such as small islands and the mainland, we may witness some demand this year, as these places will seem particularly attractive amid this era of social distancing.

In domestic tourism, OTA’s will no longer have the upper hand this year, since most consumers will favour direct bookings or reservations made by phone.

Hoteliers will have to adapt to these new conditions completely, and lead their companies to the next day of tourism, with all the changes that this entails. Reaping the benefits of all tourism-related advantages is an important part of this process. A new ecosystem needs to be created, which will be based on a well-balanced portfolio when it comes to distribution channels (so no great dependencies), an increase in direct bookings, added daily value offered to brands and modern ways of communication with audiences. 

I consider three things to be vital for the next day of tourism: Adaptability, sustainability and, of course, a digital transformation in preparation for this new era.  

The changes which we will witness in the next five years mainly due to artificial intelligence, machine learning and big data will be larger than those which we experienced in the last fifty years. Those who realise this in time to ride the wave will reap the benefits.