Asia, the Middle East, and Central & Eastern Europe among the fastest-growing sources of demand

Europe's tourism industry will continue to be built on the strength of intra-European travel, with more than three quarters of international arrivals (77%) originating within Europe itself in 2036.

However, the report highlights rapid growth from emerging European source markets. Arrivals from emerging European countries are forecast to increase by 52% over the next decade, compared with 34% growth from Western European markets. Georgia (+123%), Moldova (+107%), and Armenia (+76%) are among the fastest-growing markets.

Long-haul demand is also forecast to increase significantly. Arrivals from the Middle East are expected to grow by 93% and from Asia-Pacific by 88% over the next decade, as wealth rises globally and more consumers enter the international travel market. Among major non-European source markets, China (+138%) and South Korea (+121%) are forecast to record particularly strong growth.

Growth beyond the traditional tourism heartlands

While established destinations including Spain, France, and the UK will remain dominant, resilient, and sought-after — with the top five destination countries projected to account for over half of international overnight stays in 2036 — the report finds that some of the strongest tourism growth rates will occur outside Europe's traditional tourism hotspots.

Countries across Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltics, and parts of the Balkans are forecast to significantly outperform the European average for international tourism growth. These destinations are benefiting from improving connectivity and traveller appetite for new, affordable travel experiences, creating opportunities for investors, developers, and hotel owners to participate in markets at an earlier stage of their tourism development.

Economy hospitality to benefit

The report identifies a significant opportunity for economy hospitality as international travel becomes accessible to a broader and more diverse group of consumers. Many of these new travellers, whether long-haul visitors from fast-growing source markets such as China and India, or emerging European economies with rising incomes and improving connectivity, rely on trusted economy brands as they navigate unfamiliar cities, languages, and booking environments.

Fabiano Aouad, SVP Managed Operations MEDNA at Accor, said:

"Europe remains the world's most desirable destination because of its extraordinary diversity. There is every reason for the hospitality industry to be confident about its future. Few places can offer such a rich mix of cultures, landscapes, cities, coastlines, heritage, food and experiences within such a connected and accessible geography.

While established tourism markets will continue to thrive, the next decade of growth will be shaped by new travellers, new destinations and new patterns of demand as travellers seek different locations and experiences. The businesses who benefit the most will be those who understand and adapt to those shifts most effectively to capture the evolving demand."

Other key findings

• Inbound visitor spending across Europe is forecast to rise from €825 billion in 2026 to more than €1.3 trillion by 2036, growth of 64%. Food and beverage spending is expected to increase by 72%, retail by 69%, and recreation, culture, and sport by 66%.
• Business arrivals into Europe are projected to increase by 50%, compared with 39% growth in leisure arrivals, with particularly strong growth from Asia-Pacific (+118%) and the Middle East (+112%).

What it means for hoteliers

The report highlights the importance of understanding changing traveller behaviours, adapting to emerging demand patterns, and identifying markets with strong growth potential. As demand becomes increasingly international and geographically diverse, owners who can align the right brands, locations, and capabilities with evolving travel flows will be best placed to benefit from Europe's next tourism chapter and the broader economic value it will bring.

The full report, From Change To Opportunity – The Changing Face of Europe's Tourism Map to 2036, can be downloaded here: Accor Report – The Changing Face of the European Tourism Map 2036

From Change To Opportunity (FCTO) is Accor's insights and intelligence platform, which explores the trends and transformations shaping the future of hospitality. Explore more at accor.com.

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